[HOE] A statistical analysis of junker stablity

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Warior4356
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[HOE] A statistical analysis of junker stablity

#1 Postby Warior4356 » Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:03 pm

I was doing the math for something like a reactor, a device you would leave on all the time. It had some concerning implications. I would like to know if any of this is wrong.

On the instability table there are 4 results that get rid of your device forever. I'm ignoring all others for now, being the dustbin, poof, Woah! Nelly, and kaboom! This means an unmodified roll has a 20% chance of scoring one of these results.

Further, to lose stability on a roll there is a 25% chance on the stability table, so with a device that only rolls on a 20, you have a 1.25% chance of losing some stability, I will not be calculating this out on each but its good to note that even if it does not explode you have a 25% to lose precious stability, and only a 5% chance to regain a single point. Finally of the 25%, 5% of it is a result that can result in losing 1d8 stability, which is terrible.

Lets say you have a stability of 16.

This means that each day you roll a d20:

Note on a d20 there is a 5% chance for each number to come up, so I will be factoring probability with the 5% modified by the odds of it disappearing on that die.
1-15 nothing.
16 20% chance of gone, 1% total.
17 25% chance of gone, 1.25% total.
18 30% chance of gone, 1.5% total.
19 35% chance of gone, 1.75% total.
20 40% chance of gone, 2% total.

This translates to a total probability of disappearing of 6.5% every time you roll, translating to on average 15.4 days before its gone.

On a stability 18 things get a little better:

1-17 nothing.
18 20% chance of gone, 1% total.
19 25% chance of gone, 1.25% total.
20 30% chance of gone, 1.5% total.

This translates to a total probability of disappearing of 3.75% every time you roll, translating to on average 26.6 days before its gone.

Then a stability 20 is pretty darn good:

1-19 nothing.
20 20% chance of gone, 1% total.

With only 1% chance total it will last 100 days, still pretty bad.

Those are likely the most common you will get, but to include for flow and very good rolls....

Stability 17:

1-16 nothing.
17 20% chance of gone, 1% total.
18 25% chance of gone, 1.25% total.
19 30% chance of gone, 1.5% total.
20 35% chance of gone, 1.75% total.

Total: 5.5%
Average lifespan: 18.2 Days


Stability 19:

1-18 nothing.
19 20% chance of gone, 1% total.
20 25% chance of gone, 1.25% total.

Total: 2.25%
Average lifespan: 44.4 Days

Things get a little weird at 21+, where each point of increase in stability removes a disappearance result from the table.

Stability 21:

1-19 nothing.
20 20% chance of gone, .75% total.

Total: .75%
Average lifespan: 133.3 Days

Stability 22:

1-19 nothing.
20 20% chance of gone, .5% total.

Total: .5%
Average lifespan: 200 Days

Stability 23:

1-19 nothing.
20 20% chance of gone, .25% total.

Total: .25%
Average lifespan: 400 Days

Stability 24, here is where it gets interesting. At this point there is no chance of it outright disappearing, and it would have to lose stability through other means to have a risk of that. To achieve this score you would need 4 raises on the creation roll or for every raise you miss get two raises on flow.


In conclusion, large complicated devices specifically ones with multiple powers are great for theory crafting but anything you leave on all the time or use all the time will not last long unless you got a very very good roll for creation or adding flow.

If I made any mistakes or you have any comments I would love to hear them. Thanks.

Phasma Felis
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Posts: 215
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 9:45 am
Location: Lexington, KY, USA

Re: [HOE] A statistical analysis of junker stablity

#2 Postby Phasma Felis » Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:34 pm

Excellent work on the math! That's interesting stuff.


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